A novel approach to detect test-seeking behaviour in the blood donor population: making the invisible visible.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Individuals may donate blood in order to determine their infection status after exposure to an increased infection risk. Such test-seeking behaviour decreases transfusion safety. Instances of test seeking are difficult to substantiate as donors are unlikely to admit to such behaviour. However, manifestation in a population of repeat donors may be determined using statistical inference. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Test-seeking donors would be highly motivated to donate following infection risk, influencing the timing of their donation. Donation intervals within 2005-2014 of all Dutch blood donors who acquired syphilis (N = 50), HIV (N = 13), HTLV (N = 4) or HCV (N = 2) were compared to donation intervals of uninfected blood donors (N = 7 327 836) using the Anderson-Darling test. We adjusted for length bias as well as for age, gender and donation type of the infected. Additionally, the power of the proposed method was investigated by simulation. RESULTS: Among the Dutch donors who acquired infection, we found only a non-significant overrepresentation of short donation intervals (P = 0·54). However, we show by simulation that both relatively short and long donation intervals among infected donors can reveal test seeking. The power of the method is >90% if among 69 infected donors >35 (51%) are test seeking, or if among 320 infected donors >90 (30%) are test seeking. CONCLUSION: We show how statistical analysis may be used to reveal the extent of test seeking in repeat blood donor populations. In the Dutch setting, indications for test-seeking behaviour were not statistically significant. This may, however, be due to the low number of infected individuals.

Monitoring viral incidence rates: tools for the implementation of European Union regulations.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: European legislation requires manufacturers of plasma products to report epidemiological data on human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus in donor populations. The incidence rates of such infections are directly related to the risk of infection transmission. We propose two statistical tests to evaluate these incidence rates. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Infection data of the four Dutch blood collection centres from 2003 through 2006 were analysed. For transversal comparison of centres and detection of increased incidence rates, a new statistical test was developed (outlier test). For longitudinal detection of trends in incidence rates, a generic test for trend is proposed. The power and risk of non-detection are evaluated for both tests. RESULTS: Application of the outlier test did not reveal any significantly increased incidence rates among centres in The Netherlands. The test for trend showed no significant increase in incidence rates in individual centres, but on national level a statistically significant increase in hepatitis C virus incidence was observed (P-value of 0.01). CONCLUSION: The proposed tests allow signalling of outlier centres and trends in incidence rates both at individual centre and at national levels. Graphical support and the use of as much relevant historical data as possible is recommended. The statistical tests described are generic and can be applied by any blood establishment and plasma fractionation institute.